China’s robot rush: Morgan Stanley raises 2026 forecast to 50,000 units
Morgan Stanley has sharply raised its forecast for China’s humanoid robot shipments in 2026, lifting the estimate to 50,000 units from 28,000. The upgrade comes as commercial validation, strong policy support and supply-chain momentum accelerate adoption faster than expected.
The investment bank had already doubled its projection to 28,000 units in January. In a report published on Tuesday, it said the latest increase reflected a growing number of Chinese companies—including electric-vehicle maker Xpeng and robotics firm Unitree—announcing plans for mass production by the end of the year.
Policy and competition fueling growth
Morgan Stanley attributed China’s rapid progress to intensifying competition among domestic humanoid robot developers and strong national policy support. Chinese companies, it said, are leveraging large-scale deployments to generate the data needed to improve robot performance and accelerate commercialisation.
Beijing recently launched a nationwide training programme aimed at expanding robots’ ability to handle real-world tasks, shifting the focus from staged demonstrations to practical deployment in factories, warehouses and hospitals. This policy push is expected to further boost adoption rates across multiple industries.
Full-sized humanoids to dominate market
The bank also raised its forecast for annual humanoid robot shipments in China in 2030 to 446,000 units from the previous estimate of 262,000. Full-sized humanoids are expected to become the dominant segment of the market, with their share rising from 30 per cent this year to 50 per cent in 2027 and 70 per cent in 2028, according to the report.
The rapid scaling of China’s humanoid robot industry underscores the country’s ambition to lead in next-generation robotics, with companies moving quickly from prototypes to mass production in an increasingly competitive landscape.
The source for this article is https://www.scmp.com/tech/article/3358210/morgan-stanley-raises-china-humanoid-robot-shipment-forecast-50000-units.