Opinion | As populations fall, nations that can tap human potential will succeed

For much of the 20th century, the world grew accustomed to viewing people as an ever-expanding resource. As the global population swelled from about 2.5 billion in 1950 to an estimated 8.3 billion in 2026, labour markets, consumer bases, scientific communities, and armies expanded in tandem. However, researchers Dean Spears and Michael Geruso argue in their book After the Spike that this rapid growth may prove to be a temporary anomaly. If low fertility becomes entrenched as a new global norm, they warn, the world’s population could begin to decline naturally due to everyday decisions made by individuals.

Quality of human capital takes centre stage

While people remain the primary engine of economic, technological, and military development, sheer numbers alone are no longer sufficient. The population explosion of the past two centuries coincided with an unprecedented acceleration in science and productivity, driven by a simple probabilistic logic: more people generate more ideas and a higher chance of producing breakthrough human capital. Yet the emerging dimension of international competition hinges on the quality of that capital—specifically, a country’s ability to educate engineers, scientists, skilled workers, and specialists in artificial intelligence and robotics. Nations that invest in these areas will gain a long-term advantage.

Demographic window for technological leap

With total fertility rates falling from about five children per woman in the mid-20th century to roughly 2.2 today, many countries still possess large working-age generations. This demographic window offers a critical opportunity to accumulate technological and human capital. Should global fertility settle at 1.4 to 1.5 children per woman, the world’s population will begin a steady decline after reaching its peak. Some projections indicate that the global population could drop to 1 billion within 150 to 200 years—not an extreme scenario, but a continuation of trends already taking shape.

The source for this article is https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3357296/populations-fall-nations-can-tap-human-potential-will-succeed.